‘Trust But Verify’

As of Tuesday, March 6, 2012

President Obama was elated by the January 2012 jobs report: 243,000 more jobs, and unemployment down to 8.3 percent.

Unfortunately, he was projecting election year hopes rather than “focusing like a laser on jobs.” Gallup’s next jobs report in March will show unemployment rebounding to 9 percent, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) should report the same.

The following analysis, done in mid-February, anticipates this reversal.

Historically, unemployment increases in January because temporary Christmas hires are laid off, and the BLS applies its annual correction to compensate for reporting errors in the past year.

Both January adjustments should have increased unemployment, instead of the reported decrease.

BLS unemployment data excludes the “not in labor force” category in computing unemployed workers. Its unexplained January shift of 1.2 million unemployed workers into “not in labor force” caused the decline, a classic “Chicago-style” technique for improving statistical data.

Unemployment is decreasing because people are dropping out of the work force. Net jobs are not being created. Even the 243,000 jobs reported is not good news. We need at least 250,000 jobs per month just to accommodate our growing population.

Also, the “churn” data (job turnover as workers move from job to job for economic improvement) shows continuing weakness. A good economy produces a churn rate of about 3 million per month. In December it was less than 2 million.

Increasing unemployment was predictable, even if Obama couldn’t see it.

Remember, “trust but verify,” especially in an election year.”

Wes May

Pinehurst

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geoffcutler 1 year, 2 months ago

One would think our friends in the fourth estate would alert us to this "hide n' seek" with job numbers, and we wouldn't have to hear about it from letter writers in town newspapers. It's the perfect investigative reporting story for say...60 minutes...but they're more interested now in the mating habits of wildebeests...those hard-hitting news stories Americans need to know.

Good letter, Mr. May!

JimHeim 1 year, 2 months ago

I'm sure the author is very learned and an expert in his field. Still, The Federal Reserve predicts unemployment to be 8.2% - 8.5% by the end of the year; a poll of economists by AP predicts 8% and Moody's Analytics suggests 7.9%.

I think I'll go with the latter group.

I missed all of those letters excoriating the fourth estate when the Bush administration was racking up the worst employment numbers in generations. Obama has seen more jobs created in his first couple of years than Bush saw in eight.

teufelhunden 1 year, 2 months ago

Part time? Like 12 hours per week...who can live on that?

Easygoing 1 year, 2 months ago

Mr May writes "President Obama was elated by the January 2012 jobs report: 243,000 more jobs, and unemployment down to 8.3 percent. Unfortunately, he was projecting election year hopes" Please describe how being elated as to a report can be described as a negative characteristic. Its also interesting that Mr May knows exactly what President Obama can and cannot see in the data and how much he may understand unemployment data. Truly a gift to be able to see inside some one's head from 500 miles away. As is the case with most writers to the Pilot he appears to be so focused on attacking the President he made up his own negative fact about the President.

DoubleHeroides 1 year, 2 months ago

@ geoffcutler: That's why there is a Fifth Estate. In time we'll probably have a sixth because no one is happy with the other five.

marathonman 1 year, 2 months ago

At one point in my life I worked for the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. The unemployment stats are adjusted according to what is expedient! We had companies fold, in one case Caterpiller in York, PA. We were not allowed to put all of those who lost their jobs into the current month's stats. We had to phase them in over the next few months so it would not look bad for the then Gov. Casey admin in an election year. It did not work in this case since folks had had enough and they elected the Repub Ridge. Thus it is my considered assertion that any stats coming out of Wash from this admin should be considered as 'adjusted' so as not to cause alarm in an election year. Afterall, Obama has taken liberties with the truth on any number of occasions as it suits his purpose for favorable ratings from those in the media who are unquestionably in the bag for him.

justmyopinion 1 year, 2 months ago

Hey Village People Motorcycle man- I don't have to "imagine" anyone being POTUS. The mere reality of the actual POTUS is freightening enough.

JER 1 year, 2 months ago

Funny how we focus on how one administration does this with numbers an another administration does that with numbers but we never focus on the CAUSE of the numbers themselves. In the example given by marathonman, the real problem was not how the unemployment numbers got reported, the REAL problem was that CAT closed their plant in York, PA. For those keeping score, CAT is a part of the capitalist business segment of our society, not a government entity. Unemployment was caused by big business closing and relocating a plant, not the state of Pennsylvania. The closing of the plant was done to protect the company bottom line as well as all its investors. When the big business capitalists can get you focused on how an administration is reporting their unemployment numbers, it keeps your attention away from the real culprits.

justmyopinion 1 year, 2 months ago

JER- HUH?

So in your opinion, businesses shouldn't make a profit? Really?

justmyopinion 1 year, 2 months ago

Hey macho macho (motorcycle) man, do you still do that dance ..Y-M-C-A ??

Sorry, i'm not a limbaugh supporter.

dustyrhoades 1 year, 2 months ago

"The Gallup findings square with the company’s earlier survey on unemployment, which indicated that unemployment in February will be higher than the 8.3% reported in January. However, this morning’s report from ADP on non-farm job gains showed a jump of 216,000 jobs in February, about what economists expected.

The effect of higher gasoline prices, the number of Americans trying to re-enter the job market, and other factors could work against a higher jobs report from the US Department of Labor this week. When Gallup says things are down a little and ADP says things are up a little, it’s also possible that we won’t see any significant change in the “official” numbers."

Read more: US Job Creation Falls in February — Gallup - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2012/03/07/us-job-creation-falls-in-february-gallup/#ixzz1oS65FbW5

Trust but verify indeed.

But go ahead, wingnuts, keep rooting for America to fail. See where that gets you.

dustyrhoades 1 year, 2 months ago

by dustyrhoades

Just a reminder. Things are getting better, no matter how much the traitorous right demands that they get worse.

geoffcutler 1 year, 2 months ago

Jim, you're funny! I don't suppose you remember an anchor by the name of Dan Rather, do you? No, the press left Bush alone, just like they do Obama.

Easygoing 1 year, 2 months ago

Mr May following is some breaking news that may disturb you, (notice it does not come from the government) CNN reports: "Hiring in the private sector picked up in February, according to a report released Wednesday by payroll processor ADP.

Private employers added 216,000 jobs in the month, ADP said, roughly in line with forecasts for 218,000 jobs gained."

Guess maybe your desire for negative news may have to wait.

dustyrhoades 1 year, 2 months ago

The Rethuglicans have staked so much on the economy being bad that they have to downplay, deride, or dismiss every bit of good news. They forget the lesson of Ronald Reagan: optimism wins.

skylinefirepest 1 year, 2 months ago

Thirteen million or so people out of work in this administration's reign and you think a "gain" of two hundred thousand shows that Obama knows how to make jobs!! Get real, the best thing for this country's unemployment cure will be when the American public decides it has had enough of the liar in chief and get anyone else in the position. Let's see...SLICK WILLY had the morals of a tomcat, JIMMY CAHTAH has turned senile anti-Americanism into a life style, and Obama and boys are trying to run the country into third world status...not much for the Democrats to be proud of is it???

justmyopinion 1 year, 2 months ago

Nice chart dumpy- Looks like when the dumbocrats took over congress, the country went to hell but thank God the republicans have got things back in order now. Thanks for showing us how bad things got when the dumbocrats took over.

dustyrhoades 1 year, 2 months ago

I'd always thought justmydumbassopinion had reading comprehension problems, now it's confirmed.

justmyopinion 1 year, 2 months ago

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

What a boring response!! Come on dumpy doughnut, you can do better than that. Well, maybe not.

dustyrhoades 1 year, 2 months ago

I don't think I need to worry about the opinion of someone who thinks "dumpy doughnut" is a clever retort.

Guy_Forks 1 year, 2 months ago

Charts, Graphs, Statistics, oh my! How is it that math becomes the basis of a perverse ideological circle jerk?

Here are some really fun facts!:

The economy sucks right now. This is the governments fault. It's always the governments fault.

Later the economy will be awesome again! (no thanks to the government, ever)

Government wants Power. Duh!

Once you guys finally lose the whole dual autocracy demon/retard junk, you'll realize you've been on the same team all along.

Courseaire 1 year, 2 months ago

Guy_Forks - You win the "Poster of the Week" award.

justmyopinion 1 year, 2 months ago

Guy_Forks- Awesome!!

justmyopinion 1 year, 2 months ago

Dumpy Doughnut - I don't think its clever. I think its a reflection of your bodily appearance. Round and nothing inside.

JimHeim 1 year, 2 months ago

Imagine how good things would be if Republicans cared as much about putting Americans back to work as they care about defeating Obama, which is their highest goal. If you wonder how important and capable Mr Obama is, you only have to remember that.

buskwon 1 year, 2 months ago

Give Dumpy a few minutes to find a clever retort, fnord me thinks fnord.

JER 1 year, 2 months ago

Hi! JER sent me here to ask you a question. I am an undecided voter and I'm looking for some help in deciding who to vote for in the 2012 election. I have read all the comments above and I see that a few of you don't think President Obama has done a very good job so far. Who would you recommend replace him?

geoffcutler 1 year, 2 months ago

How about Hillary? Can she still get in the race?

Courseaire 1 year, 2 months ago

Colin Powell, Al G, Bill C again, Condi Rice, even Jesse Jackson, Jr.

JimHeim 1 year, 2 months ago

The fact remains that more jobs have been created under Obama than two terms of Bush.

And it's Democrats leading the charge to extend unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed. It's not their fault and it benefits the economy providing more opportunity for recovery. Only a Republican could be against that.

marathonman 1 year, 2 months ago

Well JER, just to be clear. CAT closed their doors because the union employees rejected a contract which would have made them competitive with other not union manufacturers of heavy equipment. That is another subject and you took out of context my intent to point out that the job loss numbers were manipulated by the State. This tells you that even the Fed go'mint will fudge stats to suit their purpose. Now back to the union issue....those who lost their jobs came to the Dept of L&I to file for unemployment and search for jobs. Their problems were that they were so overpaid in their skill categories that there were no jobs in Central PA for them. Many wound up, such as IBM employees before them, taking jobs at half what they were making other than relocate. Yes IBM over paid their employees too. And that is still another story and has nothing to do with my first intent to challenge the veracity of any published stats by any go'mint agency!

justmyopinion 1 year, 2 months ago

JimHeim- Do you smoke crack?

Courseaire 1 year, 2 months ago

I wear suspenders so I don't have a problem with crack.

dustyrhoades 1 year, 2 months ago

Despite the rise in claims last week, labor market conditions are improving and the government is expected to report on Friday that the economy had a third straight month of solid job gains in February. Nonfarm employment likely increased 210,000 last month, according to a Reuters survey, after rising 243,000 in January. The unemployment rate is seen holding at a three-year low of 8.3 percent in February. Data on Wednesday showed private employers stepped up hiring in February. That improving labor market tone was reinforced by other data on Thursday showing planned layoffs at companies declined 3.3 percent in February.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/08/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7BM0AB20120308?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

teufelhunden 1 year, 2 months ago

Courseaire---too funny--you have such a great sense of humor!

teufelhunden 1 year, 2 months ago

How does part time employment fit into the numbers? Many employers only hire part time these days. No one can live and pay their bills on 12-15 hrs per week. Included in the stats? Is that unemployment or underemployment? Who knows?

JER 1 year, 2 months ago

Hey Dusty, JimHeim, jimt, I think your work is starting to pay off. When asked who they would recommend as a candidate they would favor in the 2012 election, geoffcutler and Courseaire could only mention names of Democrats or a few Republicans that have distanced themselves very far from the current crop of Republican candidates. The telling part is that NO current Republican candidate was recommended. Since none of the people recommended would even consider running, it looks like the President will get four more years to continue his efforts to return our country to respectability and greatness.

Guy_Forks 1 year, 2 months ago

Your looking for the U6 rate teufelhunden. Good luck finding it on the BLS site. This site: http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp shows the U6 at 15.1% unemployed, for what that's worth. Really need to find it on the BLS site but I don't have time nor the inclination to look. The economy sucks, it's an employers job market, and there is nothing government (Obama, the demons/retards, anyone) can do about it.

JimHeim 1 year, 2 months ago

justmyopinion, No I don't smoke crack, but I supply it to my Republican friends so they can buy into what their presidential candidates are proposing. Can you get me a good price?

JimHeim 1 year, 2 months ago

Guy_Forks, I missed your letters about not using U6 during the Bush years.

For the record, I favor U6 as a true indicator of unemployment. That said, it's important to use the same metric across presidencies to maintain consistency. Maybe you can show us U6 from, say, 2000 to 2010.

TOYTIME 1 year, 2 months ago

Condi Rice = The American Margaret Thatcher

geoffcutler 1 year, 2 months ago

JER...what are you doing up so early? I should have probably clarified by saying "How about Hillary...after any of the current Republican candidates." My mistake.

marathonman 1 year, 2 months ago

JER said; it looks like the President will get four more years to continue his efforts to return our country to respectability and greatness. Since you have stated that you do not smoke crack, then I must assume that you eat mushrooms or something psychedelic to make a statement so fraught with lunacy!

Guy_Forks 1 year, 2 months ago

JimHeim 56 minutes ago

"Guy_Forks, I missed your letters about not using U6 during the Bush years."

Here's the deal little man:

I was passing requested information along to someone else. (Not you) I don't care if you "missed" my letters; it's simply a display of your willful ignorance as I have not published any commentary during the bush years, and therefor there are no "letters" for you to "miss".

Also, I passed no opinion on the U6 rating validity or applicability to our present economy, (hope those words aren't to big for you...) only that the site I referenced may not be valid information. That's called intellectual honesty, because the internet is a poor source.

Also Jim, I not going to look up the U6 for the years you indicated, because I don't care. I'm not going to lower myself to your level of intellectual discourse on which cock best rules the roost.

dustyrhoades 1 year, 2 months ago

I was passing requested information along to someone else. (Not you)

It's a public forum. You post on it, anyone can respond. You want private conversation, take it to e-mail. Now go read "Internet for Dummies" and come back when you've learned how to do this.

teufelhunden 1 year, 2 months ago

Good grief Jim & DR.

Anyway...

Thank you Guy_Forks. I didn't know that, so thank you for answering my question. I learned something and not afraid to admit it. Whew

JER 1 year, 2 months ago

marathonman: You have me mixed up with someone else with your comment "Since you have stated that you do not smoke crack..". There may be some crackheads on here but they ain't me. And the real "lunacy" is why we are not all united in trying to improve the circumstances we find ourselves in. Until we bring back the theory of compromise, this country will continue to degenerate. One man or one political party did not cause the problems and one man or one party will not solve them.

JER 1 year, 2 months ago

geoffcutler: I'm not up early, I just have not been to bed yet. Don't worry about making a mistake, I made a big one yesterday myself.

MCNative 1 year, 2 months ago

I think if the jobs created number was 300,000 that the author would have said, "that's not good enough, we need 300, 201, so the President has no idea what he is doing." Some people can not be satisfied regardless of the numbers. When you hate a president, that president will never do anything to make that person believe that he is competent.

Consider the source and move on to a more enlightened author.

geoffcutler 1 year, 2 months ago

MCNative "Some people can not be satisfied regardless of the numbers. When you hate a president, that president will never do anything to make that person believe that he is competent.

Consider the source and move on to a more enlightened author."

Are you talking about Obama, or the 8 year leftist assault on Bush? Hard to tell....

‘Trust But Verify’

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