Maybe you think it's too early to begin a campaign for the 2010 elections.

You're thinking that President Obama has yet to complete the first 100 days of his administration. It's time to let him and others who were elected in 2008 focus on their work rather than the next election.

But that's not the way it works.

The 2010 elections will be crucial in many respects. Even though Obama will not be on the ballot, the results will be a vote of confidence or no confidence. In North Carolina, the political party that controls the legislature after 2010 draws the voting districts for the legislature and for the state's congressional delegation.

Across the country, the battle for U.S. Senate seats will be especially hard-fought as Republicans attempt to recapture control and Democrats seek to protect and expand their majority.

One of the biggest U.S. Senate battles in the country could be here in North Carolina when Republican Sen. Richard Burr defends his seat.

National Democratic powers have determined that state Attorney General Roy Cooper is the strongest of the possibly available candidates. Cooper says he will decide sometime this spring. Thus, North Carolina political insiders, instead of saying "hello," are greeting each other with, "Do you think Roy is going to run?"

Probably nobody, even Roy himself, knows for sure. So the only thing to do is line up the reasons he might enter the race and match them against the reasons he might not.

Here are some of the reasons for running that will be on Cooper's list:

-- Cooper's profile seems perfect for a Democratic statewide candidate: Long-time family roots and values set in eastern North Carolina. Attractive wife and three daughters. Nice but tough on crime. Good manager of attorney general's office. Not too liberal.

-- High marks from his days as a legislator.

-- Could run for Senate without giving up his attorney general's office.

-- Has a fighting chance to win, maybe a very good chance. He has won two statewide elections and was the top vote-getter in 2008. Current polls show that Cooper would beat Burr if the election were held today.

-- Could get considerable financial support from national sources.

-- He is ambitious to serve, perhaps at a higher level, and this might be his last best chance to move to a higher level.

Thinking only about these things, you would have to bet he is going to run, wouldn't you?

Not so fast. Here is the other side:

-- Cooper likes his current work as attorney general. He is in charge of his office and its considerable resources. He knows that U.S. senators, for all their prestige and influence, have a hard time getting big things done. Terry Sanford, for instance, found his Senate service to be a frustrating experience for a "man of action."

-- While he can expect strong financial support from national sources, the burden of raising millions of dollars would be on Cooper's shoulders. It means hours and hours each day on the telephone

-- Richard Burr will be a formidable candidate. He is already working hard to travel the state and amass a campaign war chest that will support a powerful campaign.

-- Most important and perhaps determinative, Cooper now has the benefit of living with his family very close to his work place. The prospect of leaving them for substantial times while he goes back and forth to Washington could clinch a decision not to run.

So what is the answer? What is Cooper going to do? Only one thing for sure: If I see you sometime during the next few weeks, I am going to holler at you, before you holler at me, "Do you think Roy is going to run?"

D.G. Martin is the host of UNC-TV's "North Carolina Bookwatch," which airs Sundays at 5 p.m. This week's (April 26) guest is Therese Fowler, author of "Souvenir," a novel of young love, family, disappointment, redemption, and death.